Lucknow to record highest power demand growth in UP in next decade

The city’s peak demand was likely to soar to 2579 MW from the current 1450 MW by 2029-30, the 19th Electric Power Survey of mega cities said.

Lucknow is expected to record the highest growth in electricity consumption among the mega cities in Uttar Pradesh during the next decade, according to a recent report on the 19th Electric Power Survey (EPS) of mega cities. The city’s peak demand was likely to soar to 2579 MW (megawatt) from the current 1450 MW by 2029-30, the report said.

Varanasi is likely to be next to Lucknow in the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of electricity, to be followed by Kanpur and Agra. The four UP towns are among the country’s 45 mega cities covered in the EPS.

During the last five years (2013-14 to 2018-19), Lucknow has logged CAGR of 6.59% & 5.82% in electricity energy requirement and peak demand respectively, according to the report available on Central Electricity Authority’s website.

The peak demand in Lucknow is expected to see a CAGR of 6.15% up to 2024-25 and will reach 1955 MW in comparison to 1450 MW in 2019-20. It is expected to reach 2579 MW in 2029-30 with a CAGR of 5.70% after 2024-25.

“Lucknow has witnessed good growth in power demand in the recent past and the city is expected to follow a similar growth pattern in the future also,” says the report.

It says the peak demand of Varanasi is expected to see 4.85% compound annual growth rate up to 2024-25 and will reach 776 MW in comparison to 613 MW in 2019-20. It is expected to reach 976 MW in 2029-30 with a CAGR of 4.69% after 2024-25.

EPS noted that Varanasi had witnessed moderate peak demand growth in comparison to its energy requirement growth that is in contrast to most of the other mega cities. “This could be explained on account of higher increase in industrial consumption in recent years in the city,” it pointed out.

Peak demand of Kanpur is expected to see a CAGR of 5.32% up to 2024-25 and will reach 949 MW in comparison to 732 MW in 2019-20. It is expected to reach 1180 MW in 2029-30 with a CAGR of 4.47% after 2024- 25

The survey found that the energy requirement CAGR of Kanpur city for the past five years (2013-14 to 2018-19) showed negative growth and the peak demand growth was also moderate. It was mainly because energy consumption in 2013-14 was unusually high and energy consumption in 2018-19 was unusually low.

An official of Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Ltd (UPPCL) said an effective curb on power pilferage in Kanpur was responsible for negative or slow growth in power demand in the city during the last decade. “The power consumption in the city dropped after a check was put on pilferage,” the official said.

The report said the energy requirement in Kanpur may grow at a faster pace as there may not be further sharp reduction in line losses that had already dropped.

In Agra, the peak demand, as per the report, is expected to see CAGR of 4.49% up to 2024-25 and will reach 929 MW in comparison to 746 MW in 2019-20. It is expected to reach 1122 MW in year 2029-30 with a CAGR of 3.85% after 2024-25.

In Agra also, the energy requirement growth in the recent past was found negligible and the city observed CAGR of 0.38% during the period from 2013-14 to 2018-19.

“The decline in energy requirement growth was primarily on account of reduction in T&D losses that fell from around 47% to 20.78% during the same period,” the report pointed out.

Industry load low in UP’s mega cities

In what is indicative of low industrialisation, it is not the industry but the domestic sector that was the biggest user of electricity in UP’s mega cities in 2018-19.

As per the EPS, domestic sector or residential consumers alone had as high as 58% share in the total power consumed in Lucknow followed by commercial users (markets, malls etc) with 15% share while industry’s share was a mere 9% which was the lowest of all the four mega cities.

Once known for its industries, Kanpur also had the domestic sector as the biggest consumer of electricity (49%) followed by industrial (32%) and commercial (13%).

In Agra, domestic sector was the biggest consumer of electricity (39%) followed by industrial and irrigation at 20% each.

Similarly, the domestic sector was the biggest consumer of electricity (35%) in Varanasi too followed by industrial (27%) and commercial (25%).