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Unease before the storm on May 23

Hindustan Times, Mumbai | By, Mumbai
May 21, 2019 02:03 PM IST

The exit polls indicate that the BJP-Sena alliance is dominating the outcome in Maharashtra. It would mean Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to get votes for the BJP in the state and also the party’s decision to forge an alliance with Shiv Sena has clicked.

Exit polls aired on Sunday have brought cheers to the BJP-Shiv Sena camp and increased the worries in the Opposition — Congress-NCP — camp.

Most exit polls have predicted victory for the BJP-Sena combine in Maharashtra and less than 15 seats for the Congress-NCP. Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats. One of the exit polls even predicted that the Opposition’s tally will be less than six seats they had won in the 2014 elections. Different exit polls have predicted seats in the range of 35-40 for the NDA and eight to 14 for the UPA.

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Leaders of the ruling parties, especially the BJP, are expecting 35 to 40 seats. Many in the Opposition camp say they are expecting their tally in the range of 15 to 20. The results on May 23 will show who got it right. But for now, the unease in both the camps is quite visible.

In a nutshell, the exit polls indicate that the BJP-Sena alliance is dominating the outcome in Maharashtra. It would mean Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to get votes for the BJP in the state and also the party’s decision to forge an alliance with Shiv Sena has clicked.

Both these facts would be good news for the BJP, as it prepares for the Assembly elections to be held in five months. If the Congress-NCP get stuck around 10-12 seats, it won’t be easy for the two Opposition parties to wrest power in the state from the BJP-Sena alliance. With winning more than two third of Lok Sabha seats in the state, the saffron combine will be in a better position to retain power in the state.

Also Read | Will win more seats than predicted by exit polls: Shiv Sena

The outcome of the Lok Sabha election is also significant in Maharashtra in the context of local leadership. If the saffron combine wins more than 30 seats in the state, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis’ stature will grow in the BJP and he will emerge as a frontline leader of the party with potential for a role at national-level politics.

The exit polls also indicate that the Sena will lose more seats than the BJP in case there is a drop in the tally of seats won by the two parties in 2014. That would not amuse the Sena. A section of the Sena leaders are wary that the BJP may not agree for equal share in power at the state-level if Modi government returns to power with a strong majority. That would reduce Sena’s bargaining power.

Will it lead to another confrontation like it happened ahead of 2014 assembly elections? The Sena would be uneasy, but with Fadnavis wielding clout in the BJP, its leadership would prefer to continue the alliance.

For NCP chief Sharad Pawar, this year’s two elections are crucial to regain party’s strength. The exit polls indicate that the NCP is doing better than the Congress, but the increase in its tally could be marginal. In 2014, the NCP managed to win four Lok Sabha seats while the Congress was reduced to two. However, Pawar’s aim is to take back the control of the state from BJP-Sena in the Assembly elections that are to be held in September-October. For that, the Opposition will have to set the tone by restricting the NDA below 30 seats. Is that happening? Majority of the exit polls indicate otherwise.

Congress may turn out to be biggest loser in the elections. If its tally remains restricted to below 10, its leaders would have to seriously think what is going wrong. The infighting within the party, reluctance of senior leaders to take on the BJP government, absence of the party network in several parts of the state and above all, failure to connect with voters would continue to haunt the party in Maharashtra.

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